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Post by titaneddie on Mar 24, 2020 10:17:53 GMT -5
Funny thing that time we all have in a day...wait until you retire. I have a taste and I'm hooked and it's not even golf season! Of course I'm sure this is going to set me back a few years. |
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 24, 2020 10:17:56 GMT -5
"But early projections for the toll of coronavirus in the United States suggest it could lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, even at the lowest end of ranges of estimates. While the figures for the mortality rate of coronavirus continues to evolve, recent research from Wuhan, China, the city where the outbreak began, indicates the mortality rate there was around 1.4%. Experts at Harvard University have projected an infection rate in the US of between 20% and 60%, meaning that while it is impossible to reliably estimate the American coronavirus death toll, a reasonable scenario might result in hundreds of thousands of lives lost." An infection rate of 20% and a mortality rate of 1% (both right at the bottom end of the range) would lead to 600k deaths. 37k die of flu on average in America each year. People need to start waking up to the numbers... And with trump pushing hard for a quick reopening of the economy, who knows what could happen... The infection rate in China is .005 ish percent.... nowhere close to 20%. If we’re going off of China’s numbers, we might see a .1% infection rate...that would lead to roughly 32k deaths. this is what I mean when I say you should dig into the numbers yourself....don’t rely on what the media is reporting |
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 10:33:09 GMT -5
The hospital staff I talked to yesterday were pretty disappointed and upset. Disappointed that the equipment they need is being held hostage in bidding wars. Upset with Trump for not supporting them and is putting their lives at risk by not having equipment allocated. And this isn't even a hot spot where I live. They get one mask a day. My daughter has told me the same thing. She works for the same hospital at a different location downtown. They don't have any UV equipment to sterilize them each day. If this does become a hotspot, people will die from lack of medical availability. It appears there are some people in leadership positions in DC who believe in human sacrifice to the almighty Economy Gods..... unless it is their own life of course. You won't see any of them jumping into a volcano themselves to save an economy. Yet our doctors and nurses jump into that volcano everyday to save a life. Don't try to self-medicate with unapproved drugs or dumb sht found in social media. People have already died trying to use a form of chloroquine meant for aquariums. The wife of one man who died, and she is in critical condition, said they learned of chloroquine's connection to coronavirus during a President Donald Trump news conference, which "was on a lot actually." They took it because they "were afraid of getting sick," she said. "I had (the substance) in the house because I used to have koi fish. I saw it sitting on the back shelf and thought, 'Hey, isn't that the stuff they're talking about on TV?'" Help your medical community. Listen to them. They are the experts. Stay home. Don't panic but please take the contagion seriously. Don't be an open-world carrier in the wild. If you see Trump talking, just hit the mute button. He is of no help here. That's not a political comment. That is a health and well-being comment. Take care peeps. Great post. |
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 10:41:00 GMT -5
"But early projections for the toll of coronavirus in the United States suggest it could lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, even at the lowest end of ranges of estimates. While the figures for the mortality rate of coronavirus continues to evolve, recent research from Wuhan, China, the city where the outbreak began, indicates the mortality rate there was around 1.4%. Experts at Harvard University have projected an infection rate in the US of between 20% and 60%, meaning that while it is impossible to reliably estimate the American coronavirus death toll, a reasonable scenario might result in hundreds of thousands of lives lost." An infection rate of 20% and a mortality rate of 1% (both right at the bottom end of the range) would lead to 600k deaths. 37k die of flu on average in America each year. People need to start waking up to the numbers... And with trump pushing hard for a quick reopening of the economy, who knows what could happen... The infection rate in China is .005 ish percent.... nowhere close to 20%. If we’re going off of China’s numbers, we might see a .1% infection rate...that would lead to roughly 32k deaths. this is what I mean when I say you should dig into the numbers yourself....don’t rely on what the media is reporting Why would America have the same infection rate as China?? Completely different countries, with completey different patterns of travel, by its own citizens and tourists, as well as a different timeline on decisions made and lockdown policies. Every country will have VASTLY different infection rates. (reported) infection rate is a terrible way to analyse it anyway, as it's totally decided by testing numbers, and people reporting feeling unwell. That's why the estimate by the Harvard people is so broad. Also, you really need to quit it with the "media" stuff, and actually look at the source of the quote. I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but if they're not being used by ANY media, there's probably a reason for that, and I won't be accepting "yeah, it's a big conspiracy..." So you're not saying "don't listen to the media," you're saying "ignore health experts from Harvard university," which is ok, that's your opinion, but stop framing it as something which it isn't. There's all kinds of information out there, I'm sharing ones I believe to be from reputable sources... |
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Post by nevadaballin on Mar 24, 2020 11:03:58 GMT -5
"But early projections for the toll of coronavirus in the United States suggest it could lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, even at the lowest end of ranges of estimates. While the figures for the mortality rate of coronavirus continues to evolve, recent research from Wuhan, China, the city where the outbreak began, indicates the mortality rate there was around 1.4%. Experts at Harvard University have projected an infection rate in the US of between 20% and 60%, meaning that while it is impossible to reliably estimate the American coronavirus death toll, a reasonable scenario might result in hundreds of thousands of lives lost." An infection rate of 20% and a mortality rate of 1% (both right at the bottom end of the range) would lead to 600k deaths. 37k die of flu on average in America each year. People need to start waking up to the numbers... And with trump pushing hard for a quick reopening of the economy, who knows what could happen... The infection rate in China is .005 ish percent.... nowhere close to 20%. If we’re going off of China’s numbers, we might see a .1% infection rate...that would lead to roughly 32k deaths. this is what I mean when I say you should dig into the numbers yourself....don’t rely on what the media is reporting When we watch a press conference with a governor like Andrew Cuomo, that is not a "media" report. That is a governor's report. His presser he had today should be eye opening to many. |
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 24, 2020 11:08:58 GMT -5
Use some common sense
Let’s look at Italy then... their infection rate is looking to be about .1%... that’s about what I put ours at.
20% is just ridiculous. Your fascination with the medical experts is just as bad as what you claim I do... they will give exaggerations of the truth in an effort to not be wrong later. The media what use the true numbers because they don’t want to be wrong, so they err on the extreme high.
Look into the numbers yourself... you should always question what anybody says, “expert” or not... it just takes some research to see what’s going on.
I’ll give you this though... the infection rate for the flu is about 5%... the flu and covid have about the same
Spread factor, so it would suffice to say the infection rate would be similar... China showed that a lockdown will significantly decrease that number.. we will see what Italy’s numbers do in the next few days, that should give us a better idea of what to expect here.
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 11:23:18 GMT -5
Argh. You can NOT judge Italy's infection rate on based on amount of tests done!! I literally just said that!! There are people who have it who are not able to be tested, and there are people who have it who do not come forward to be tested. How do you count an asymptomatic person who NEVER knew they had it?? (And they clearly DO exist.)
Do you ever wonder why they estimated such a huge number? It's NOT because they don't want to be wrong later, that's ridiculous logic. If it's so obvious, as you suggest, they'll just end up looking silly.
And yet, at the end of this, you'll probably STILL say "look what the infection rate was." We will never know what the infection rate was, again, that's why they quote such a broad range. (20 was the bottom, it could be as much as 60!) you're using a false number and measure to judge by. Don't know how many more times or ways I can say that now.
Yes, we'll see what actions are taken, and we'll see how many people die.
You are not an expert, and you try to put your own guesses forward, I am not an expert, I am using the numbers of people who specialise in the subject, have access to the numbers and studies of other people who have done studies, and then they do their own studies on it.
It's absolutely ridiculous to suggest we should ignore those people and analyse the number ourselves.
Listening to people who know more than you is the very definition of "common sense..." Smh...
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 11:31:58 GMT -5
If anyone is manipulating the media in all of this, it's populist leaders like trump, Johnson and bolsonaro!
Start off by playing it down, then shown to be massively wrong (why aren't you making any fuss about that?!) And take moderate action, then get more information and pleading from the experts, and again change policy (nothing to say about that?!)
And after this, however many people we do end up losing, they'll quote the worst predictions, the ones for if we took NO action, and say "see, it wasn't as bad as they were saying it would be." Yeah, because eventually you listened to them!!
But people will still nod along and say "yep, don't listen to experts, I'm so sick of them..."
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 24, 2020 11:43:42 GMT -5
Argh. You can NOT judge Italy's infection rate on based on amount of tests done!! I literally just said that!! There are people who have it who are not able to be tested, and there are people who have it who do not come forward to be tested. How do you count an asymptomatic person who NEVER knew they had it?? (And they clearly DO exist.) Do you ever wonder why they estimated such a huge number? It's NOT because they don't want to be wrong later, that's ridiculous logic. If it's so obvious, as you suggest, they'll just end up looking silly. And yet, at the end of this, you'll probably STILL say "look what the infection rate was." We will never know what the infection rate was, again, that's why they quote such a broad range. (20 was the bottom, it could be as much as 60!) you're using a false number and measure to judge by. Don't know how many more times or ways I can say that now. Yes, we'll see what actions are taken, and we'll see how many people die. You are not an expert, and you try to put your own guesses forward, I am not an expert, I am using the numbers of people who specialise in the subject, have access to the numbers and studies of other people who have done studies, and then they do their own studies on it. It's absolutely ridiculous to suggest we should ignore those people and analyse the number ourselves. Listening to people who know more than you is the very definition of "common sense..." Smh... You're literally proving my point about the death rate... you can't use the fact that there will be a lot more infected people who are infected but don't know, and then claim that the death rate will be 1.5%... If you believe that there are a lot more people that are infected than reported, as I do, then the death rate for covid is much lower than the 1.5% (probably closer to the .1% range, but that's my prediction based on current trends... it's not based on any supplied media predictions). You can't have it both ways... either we take the numbers at face value... or we assume more people are infected, which raised the infected rate, but lowers the fatality rate. Either way, an estimation of 600k deaths is an exaggeration. PS, I am a mathematician with a Masters in Math... I can speak to numbers and whether they make sense based on their context. This is what a mathematician does.. take numbers and analyzes them. |
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 11:58:14 GMT -5
Argh. You can NOT judge Italy's infection rate on based on amount of tests done!! I literally just said that!! There are people who have it who are not able to be tested, and there are people who have it who do not come forward to be tested. How do you count an asymptomatic person who NEVER knew they had it?? (And they clearly DO exist.) Do you ever wonder why they estimated such a huge number? It's NOT because they don't want to be wrong later, that's ridiculous logic. If it's so obvious, as you suggest, they'll just end up looking silly. And yet, at the end of this, you'll probably STILL say "look what the infection rate was." We will never know what the infection rate was, again, that's why they quote such a broad range. (20 was the bottom, it could be as much as 60!) you're using a false number and measure to judge by. Don't know how many more times or ways I can say that now. Yes, we'll see what actions are taken, and we'll see how many people die. You are not an expert, and you try to put your own guesses forward, I am not an expert, I am using the numbers of people who specialise in the subject, have access to the numbers and studies of other people who have done studies, and then they do their own studies on it. It's absolutely ridiculous to suggest we should ignore those people and analyse the number ourselves. Listening to people who know more than you is the very definition of "common sense..." Smh... You're literally proving my point about the death rate... you can't use the fact that there will be a lot more infected people who are infected but don't know, and then claim that the death rate will be 1.5%... If you believe that there are a lot more people that are infected than reported, as I do, then the death rate for covid is much lower than the 1.5% (probably closer to the .1% range, but that's my prediction based on current trends... it's not based on any supplied media predictions). You can't have it both ways... either we take the numbers at face value... or we assume more people are infected, which raised the infected rate, but lowers the fatality rate. Either way, an estimation of 600k deaths is an exaggeration. PS, I am a mathematician with a Masters in Math... I can speak to numbers and whether they make sense based on their context. This is what a mathematician does.. take numbers and analyzes them. Dodged loads of my points there. Do you agree infection rate is a useless metric now? Fairly sure I've NEVER made a strong statement on what I believe the death rate to be; if you'd like to show where I have, feel free... I'm fairly sure my only (semi) definitive statement was it's higher than flu, probably significantly higher. My favourite resource for this, which I posted a link to many pages back, estimates it to be (if I remember right) 0.8 to 2.0%, probably at the lower end of that, and definitely lower than wubei's 3.5%, which again, was based off reported cases, which is a very imperfect metric. The only thing that matters is how many people will die. Nobody knows for sure, but the people playing it down are going WAY below even the most conservative of estimates by people who know what they're doing. Being a mathematician means you can handle the numbers you choose to use just fine; but if you choose the wrong number, because it's a subject you have, at best, a layman's knowledge on, what good is that? Quoting your masters at us is pointless grandstanding, as this is high school level number crunching! |
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 24, 2020 12:11:50 GMT -5
Quoting your masters at us is pointless grandstanding, as this is high school level number crunching! You're the one who was trying to say you believed everybody that has credentials... I was just pointing out that I also have credentials. |
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 12:17:11 GMT -5
Quoting your masters at us is pointless grandstanding, as this is high school level number crunching! You're the one who was trying to say you believed everybody that has credentials... I was just pointing out that I also have credentials. Right. But I think I was suggesting credentials on, you know, viruses?? Anyway, this is pointless, I won't reply to you further. Suffice to say, I massively disagree with your interpretation of the numbers. If people keep posting their opinionated "stop worrying" comments, I'll just respond by posting what people who know what they're talking about are recommending. |
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 24, 2020 12:25:45 GMT -5
I will say it again... either we take the numbers at face value and make predictions based off of those, or we assume many more people are infected with the virus who are either not showing symptoms or are not tested, and make assumptions based off of those...
It has to be one or the other mathematically.. I don't care which you do.. I have a problem with you quoting "experts" who are using assumptions that are not mathematically justified.... that's my issue.
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Post by LKeet6 on Mar 24, 2020 12:32:46 GMT -5
The experts are using BOTH, they're attempting to find the middle ground and make estinates. Infection rate and death rate can NOT be trusted, and ALL the experts admit that, which once again, is why the estimates are broad. It's NOT about "maths" it's about models, because there is NO accurate figures on it. Simple number crunching is literally pointless...
Every quote or link I've posted has said "we don't know for sure" etc.
That doesn't change the fact their models have scientific backing to them and should be paid attention to. It's not about "winning" an argument and getting a number right, it's about them saying this is serious, it will end up being a large number, especially if we do nothing, or only mild distancing policies.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 13:13:46 GMT -5
have a separate forum for that. I've lurked there on occasion. Not much going on but just signed up for the hell of it. BTW...whatever happened to Paulus, thats his board isn't it, just never see him around here anymore. I was wondering the same thing. One of the better debaters on the forum and always kept it pretty civil. Actually learned some things from the Paulus. On topic. My wife got a memo on how to make her own mask. One line said " using pretty material is a good idea" or something like that. Her response was they do not care if a nurse puts a pillow case over their heads. Unless they are half dead they are working. Bottom line she probably has it by now. Just waiting to see if she get symptoms or I do. Business wise we are hanging in there. Really uncharted territory here. No clue what will happen. I do not want to get political but I hear all this talk about how you should listen to experts only. Then I see AOC on CNN......like we need open borders and like we need free everything like totally. |
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