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Post by JosiaDB on Mar 16, 2020 15:10:41 GMT -5
If even one person dies, that could have been prevented, I'd consider it significant.
For most, life just can't stop forever. This is going to still be a threat after two weeks. People will get bored and start venturing back out. and this virus will still be out there lurking.
wash your hands.
don't have any more contact with others than you have to.
be careful what you touch.
wash your hands again.
be prudent out there fellows.
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Post by catcherman22 on Mar 16, 2020 15:12:50 GMT -5
read what I said... when we're talking about 10 times as an increase from .1% to 1% it is insignificant... I totally agree with you if we were talking about 50 people versus 500 people that is a large chunk... but to get 100k people for .1%, we're talking about 100 million people.. so in answer your question.. the difference from 100k people and 1 million people when you're talking about 100 million is insignificant... if we were taking about 5 million versus 50 million... that is significant (900k versus 45 million) So to recap, the Coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the flu. That is a fact put together by people much smarter than us. It's not misleading because it's fact. Then this is where I get lost: 10x is not significant because 50x is, and 50 is more than 10. But it could be significant if 50 million people die. But if it's just 10000 it's not significant. ? I don't understand your point here... I am not arguing the 10 times larger.. it is 10 times larger.. what I am saying, as a mathematician, that 10 times larger is an exaggeration used by those who want to prove a point, when in fact it is not considered significant... see my point above.. .1% to 1% is a 10x increase... 5% to 50% is a 10x increase... I'm speaking purely in numbers here... not people, not deaths.. nothing. If we go off of the 100 million number above.. an increase from 100k to 1 million is only an increase of 900k..... large yes, but we're comparing it to 100 million... 900k to 100 million is literally almost nothing (its less than 1%)…. if we compare 5 million to 50 million (which is 45 million), that's a significant chunk of the 100 million (45%). The death rate is 10x higher than the flu... no arguing that, but to say it's significantly worse than the flu is just flat out false... this is a case where something can be 10x larger and not mean what you want it to mean. If I make 1 dollar a day and you make 10 dollars a day... I wouldn't go around bragging that I make 10 x more than you... we both make sh%$. It's the same situation here. They are both deadly, but the difference between the number of people who died from the flu and the corona virus will not be that large when compared to the number of people who get it..... and I' also argue that the number of people who die from the corona would also probably have died from the flu... but that's another argument and not one I could base on fact. |
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Post by nevadaballin on Mar 16, 2020 16:28:13 GMT -5
So to recap, the Coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the flu. That is a fact put together by people much smarter than us. It's not misleading because it's fact. Then this is where I get lost: 10x is not significant because 50x is, and 50 is more than 10. But it could be significant if 50 million people die. But if it's just 10000 it's not significant. ? I don't understand your point here... I am not arguing the 10 times larger.. it is 10 times larger.. what I am saying, as a mathematician, that 10 times larger is an exaggeration used by those who want to prove a point, when in fact it is not considered significant... see my point above.. .1% to 1% is a 10x increase... 5% to 50% is a 10x increase... I'm speaking purely in numbers here... not people, not deaths.. nothing. If we go off of the 100 million number above.. an increase from 100k to 1 million is only an increase of 900k..... large yes, but we're comparing it to 100 million... 900k to 100 million is literally almost nothing (its less than 1%)…. if we compare 5 million to 50 million (which is 45 million), that's a significant chunk of the 100 million (45%). The death rate is 10x higher than the flu... no arguing that, but to say it's significantly worse than the flu is just flat out false... this is a case where something can be 10x larger and not mean what you want it to mean. If I make 1 dollar a day and you make 10 dollars a day... I wouldn't go around bragging that I make 10 x more than you... we both make sh%$. It's the same situation here. They are both deadly, but the difference between the number of people who died from the flu and the corona virus will not be that large when compared to the number of people who get it..... and I' also argue that the number of people who die from the corona would also probably have died from the flu... but that's another argument and not one I could base on fact. Children can die from a regular flu. It seems they are not at risk with covid-19. This virus is a different animal and really shouldn't be compared against the seasonal influenzas we typically see and have vaccines/treatments for. This coronavirus is a form of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). Also note, the Hong Kong Hospital Authority announced they had found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in two to three of around a dozen people who had recovered from the disease. That is a significant piece of information imo. Who knows what happens with these people's health in a year or 5 years from now? Ignoring social distancing will be the biggest mistake that can happen because this virus still has too many unknowns. I don't think we need to wait for 15,000 people to die before declaring self-quarantine measures. Let's try to save those 15,000 lives instead by being responsible to each other. That doesn't mean panic. Just try to adhere to recommendations coming from medical professionals. If you get a chance, watch that video I linked. There are so many lines that can be drawn from between then and now. It's a bit eerie. |
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Post by SmilingGoats on Mar 16, 2020 16:34:30 GMT -5
The big difference between this and the flu is that this is happening all at once with no one vaccinated and therefore could overrun (or has overrun in the case of Italy) the health system easily. That, in turn, exacerbates the death rate.
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Post by joegolferg on Mar 16, 2020 16:41:14 GMT -5
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Post by 15eicheltower9 on Mar 16, 2020 16:46:03 GMT -5
I will be the first to admit, we Americans are idiots. |
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Post by nevadaballin on Mar 16, 2020 17:04:53 GMT -5
I will be the first to admit, we Americans are idiots. Only some. But this is the moment that doomsday preppers have been waiting for  Stay calm people, grill a steak or a burger and play some video games. |
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Post by boffo on Mar 16, 2020 17:52:02 GMT -5
It seemed everyone thought Trudeau was going to shut Canada down at his press conference today but instead he just restricted entry into Canada for anyone that isn't Canadian or American. I guess it's something and I've been practicing social distancing my whole life, so outside of work and getting food I won't be interacting with anyone but my wife. Our area still has 0 confirmed cases although there were apparently 25 suspected cases reported over the weekend so it's probably creeping up to my doorstep finally.
Canada as a whole did see our death count quadruple today going from 1 death to 4.
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Post by lessthanbread on Mar 16, 2020 18:31:09 GMT -5
Let’s not lump all Americans, or anyone for that matter, into categories just because there are some nuts out there... I am a gun owner and support the citizen’s right to own firearms but absolutely do not fall into the mindset of stocking up for some apocalypse or walk around looking for a reason to pull the trigger.. These events bring out all the idiots. They love times like this. But they are the loud minority and the media loves to give them all the attention Edit: That being said... go ahead, try to take my toilet paper. Make my day...  |
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Post by 15eicheltower9 on Mar 16, 2020 19:06:58 GMT -5
Let’s not lump all Americans, or anyone for that matter, into categories just because there are some nuts out there... I am a gun owner and support the citizen’s right to own firearms but absolutely do not fall into the mindset of stocking up for some apocalypse or walk around looking for a reason to pull the trigger.. These events bring out all the idiots. They love times like this. But they are the loud minority and the media loves to give them all the attention I am going to save this conversation for another time and place. I own guns, i am an American. They are the loud minority. Was just making light during a stressful situation (it's my mechanism) and at the same time pointing out how bad it looks. |
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Post by 15eicheltower9 on Mar 16, 2020 19:18:22 GMT -5
It seemed everyone thought Trudeau was going to shut Canada down at his press conference today but instead he just restricted entry into Canada for anyone that isn't Canadian or American. I guess it's something and I've been practicing social distancing my whole life, so outside of work and getting food I won't be interacting with anyone but my wife. Our area still has 0 confirmed cases although there were apparently 25 suspected cases reported over the weekend so it's probably creeping up to my doorstep finally. Canada as a whole did see our death count quadruple today going from 1 death to 4. That is huge actually. That's a big preventative measure, it might be wise to restrict or limit travel from the states to Canada too. My girlfriend is Canadian, we live in the states about 40 minutes from her family in Canada. She also has family (her parents) that live in the U.S. Her aunt and grandmother travel back and forth frequently from Canada. Mostly to visit or shop. There's no reason to right now. Perhaps limiting travel between our countries would be a better measure. |
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Post by Cecil Harvey on Mar 16, 2020 19:27:43 GMT -5
A co-worker in my plant went on a cruise two weeks ago. There was a meeting about this because her husband is rumored to be at least quarantined right now. My state is closing all bars and restaurants to dine in. Yet we are a gathering of way more than 10 people and still have a significant presence of people from outside the U.S. Still working as if nothing is happening in the world.
Also, as a child whose parents are in their 70s and one with significant immune deficiencies, this is very scary as I worry that any regular old trip to the ER, hospital, or doctor's office could be very bad.
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Post by boffo on Mar 16, 2020 19:35:05 GMT -5
It seemed everyone thought Trudeau was going to shut Canada down at his press conference today but instead he just restricted entry into Canada for anyone that isn't Canadian or American. I guess it's something and I've been practicing social distancing my whole life, so outside of work and getting food I won't be interacting with anyone but my wife. Our area still has 0 confirmed cases although there were apparently 25 suspected cases reported over the weekend so it's probably creeping up to my doorstep finally. Canada as a whole did see our death count quadruple today going from 1 death to 4. That is huge actually. That's a big preventative measure, it might be wise to restrict or limit travel from the states to Canada too. My girlfriend is Canadian, we live in the states about 40 minutes from her family in Canada. She also has family (her parents) that live in the U.S. Her aunt and grandmother travel back and forth frequently from Canada. Mostly to visit or shop. There's no reason to right now. Perhaps limiting travel between our countries would be a better measure. Almost every question the media that was there asked was why aren't you restricting Americans as well, to which Trudeau didn't really have a specific answer. Most likely because the two countries are still so interconnected it would be a huge leap to just completely shut down the border to each other. At this point it is starting to look like the US could be the greater threat to any chance of it being contained in Canada than any other country is so a total border shutdown could still be possible in the not too distant future. My wife is American and her mom still lives there and very much falls into the at risk category. We were supposed to be going there for Easter but it seems highly unlikely we'll be doing that. As of two or three days ago she was upset we might not go and didn't fully understand why we wouldn't. |
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Post by 15eicheltower9 on Mar 16, 2020 19:44:04 GMT -5
That is huge actually. That's a big preventative measure, it might be wise to restrict or limit travel from the states to Canada too. My girlfriend is Canadian, we live in the states about 40 minutes from her family in Canada. She also has family (her parents) that live in the U.S. Her aunt and grandmother travel back and forth frequently from Canada. Mostly to visit or shop. There's no reason to right now. Perhaps limiting travel between our countries would be a better measure. Almost every question the media that was there asked was why aren't you restricting Americans as well, to which Trudeau didn't really have a specific answer. Most likely because the two countries are still so interconnected it would be a huge leap to just completely shut down the border to each other. At this point it is starting to look like the US could be the greater threat to any chance of it being contained in Canada than any other country is so a total border shutdown could still be possible in the not too distant future. My wife is American and her mom still lives there and very much falls into the at risk category. We were supposed to be going there for Easter but it seems highly unlikely we'll be doing that. As of two or three days ago she was upset we might not go and didn't fully understand why we wouldn't. One of my girlfriends aunts works on this side of the border and commutes every day. But a shutdown seems inevitable. So why not just restrict the US from traveling there now. We've just shut down bars, restaunts and casinos in NY but what's stopping people from heading north. It will happen. People here have been so irresponsible about the whole situation. Honestly, it's in Canada's best interest to keep us out. We are literally a threat. |
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Post by staypuft39 on Mar 16, 2020 20:11:59 GMT -5
Almost every question the media that was there asked was why aren't you restricting Americans as well, to which Trudeau didn't really have a specific answer. Most likely because the two countries are still so interconnected it would be a huge leap to just completely shut down the border to each other. At this point it is starting to look like the US could be the greater threat to any chance of it being contained in Canada than any other country is so a total border shutdown could still be possible in the not too distant future. My wife is American and her mom still lives there and very much falls into the at risk category. We were supposed to be going there for Easter but it seems highly unlikely we'll be doing that. As of two or three days ago she was upset we might not go and didn't fully understand why we wouldn't. One of my girlfriends aunts works on this side of the border and commutes every day. But a shutdown seems inevitable. So why not just restrict the US from traveling there now. We've just shut down bars, restaunts and casinos in NY but what's stopping people from heading north. It will happen. People here have been so irresponsible about the whole situation. Honestly, it's in Canada's best interest to keep us out. We are literally a threat. You have multiple girlfriends? Piiiimp. |
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