Andy2k7
Caddy
Posts: 73 
TGCT Name: Andrew Young
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Post by Andy2k7 on Feb 5, 2015 10:21:53 GMT -5
As it stands the predicted cut is 120, I shot 122 as well so hoping we both might sneak in.  Where are you getting the predicted cut of 120 from? That's currently good for 27th, and it looks like most scores are in... I think you are mistaking the cut line of 120 as the score, when it's actually the positions. Top 70 plus ties is currently 123, at the top of the leaderboard on the left the predicted cut is 120. |
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Post by Pubknight on Feb 5, 2015 10:29:21 GMT -5
The cut line isn't the score cut line to make the cut.
The Cut Line: 120 means 120 players will make the cut.
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Post by geegee23 on Feb 5, 2015 11:05:35 GMT -5
Well I got to use a sponsor exemption from the Champions tour this week. After my first few holes in my practice round I knew I had almost no cut of making the cut as the course would just be too easy for good players. Unfortunately I played my first round in 20 mph winds and shot 70. I knew I had to go REALLY low to have a chance. I shot 61 in the second round, -13 overall looks like I'll just miss the cut
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mes5107
Caddy
Posts: 48
TGCT Name: David Messier
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Post by mes5107 on Feb 5, 2015 13:49:39 GMT -5
It looks like the cut line is either -19 or -18, but most likely -19.
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Post by edi_vedder on Feb 5, 2015 14:48:08 GMT -5
So I'll miss it by one shot.  |
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mes5107
Caddy
Posts: 48
TGCT Name: David Messier
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Post by mes5107 on Feb 5, 2015 15:14:07 GMT -5
So I'll miss it by one shot. It all depends on how many end up playing. As of this post 4 players have played only one round and scored -10 or better. Also, 46 haven't submitted a score at all. -18 currently is T106th. Last week 32 out of 251 did not submit a scores for the first two rounds (13%). If we use that rate of withdrawals here, approximately 35 of the 46 will withdraw (273 entries this week). So we have 4 that have already posted a round that will most likely make the cut, and approximately 5-6 of the other 11 should make the cut if we use the current distribution of scoring as an indicator. Actually, that puts -18 at T115-116. Man, it's close, but I guess after running the numbers -18 is more likely. |
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Post by Pubknight on Feb 5, 2015 15:23:55 GMT -5
- that's funny, looks like mes5107 started doing some similar number crunching at the same time...
I'm bored, so I started looking at stuff.
Last week, there were 32 of 251 players that never posted a round.
As of right now, there are 273 players registered, of which 46 haven't posted a round.
So, let's assume (larger field than last week), 35 of those either never post/post late, whatever happens to the folks that get listed as WD all four rounds.
That would leave 11 people of that 46 yet to enter R1 and R2 scores (that we expect will).
There are 8 players that have posted R1 scores, with no R2 scores yet.
Let's assume they all post.
That's 19 more scores overall to go in to the current pool.
If the current cut line is -18, let's assume half of those 19 meet or exceed the current cut line, and half don't.
There are 16 people at -18.
So even if 9-10 more people come in with lower scores than -18, 120+ties should still make -18 hold.
I would think you would need to see 16 or more of those 19 'unaccounted for' scores come in less than -18 for the cut to push to -19.
Obviously a lot of assumptions here, but I'm going to guess -18 for the cut.
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Post by schatuk on Feb 5, 2015 15:26:44 GMT -5
but I'm going to guess -18 for the cut. Bugger.  |
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Crimson Nagus
Caddy
Xbox: Crimson Nagus
Posts: 29
TGCT Name: Chris Williams
Tour: CC-Pro
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Post by Crimson Nagus on Feb 5, 2015 15:57:24 GMT -5
Shoot -17 under and I'm gonna miss the cut. What a joke.
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dukemann970
Caddy
Posts: 49
TGCT Name: PGA Tour
Tour: CC-Pro
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Post by dukemann970 on Feb 5, 2015 16:14:09 GMT -5
Will be slamming my trunk after shooting -17 (64-63), including a 3-putt bogey on 18, my first missed cut in three starts on the Web.com tour. Drew 7-11 mph winds both rounds but played it through. I've never been able to go super low on this course in practice rounds, and hadn't practiced in winds quite this strong. Have a sponsor's exemption for the PGA Tour next week and I think I got caught sleepwalking a little bit as well.
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Post by Pubknight on Feb 5, 2015 16:16:54 GMT -5
Well, the new flights thing isn't far away, that should help 'normalize' things a bit.
And if HB comes through with some of the wind stuff they are talking about (kind of 'pre-set' winds in each round of a tournament, regardless of when you play it), I think that will also reign in some of the silly low scores... as people won't have the option of trying to avoid wind.
Also this week should produce a ton of sponsors exemptions based on scoring criteria... so a lot of guys are probably going to be trying out Euro/PGA the week after next.
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xusemagru
Weekend Golfer
Posts: 115
TGCT Name: Ryan O'Donnell
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Post by xusemagru on Feb 5, 2015 20:30:48 GMT -5
Well first tournament and I am generally happy how I played. ended up -56 i knew i had to go stupid low in the 4th round as i shot 61 in the third and in my first decent winds of the tournament i shot -17 with 4 pars on the back with a par on the last par 5. for whatever reason i went over the green was on the fringe and i thought it was set up for chip which it should have been but instead it was on pitch and i pumped it over the water back to the fairway...could have been so much better
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Post by seamount4life on Feb 7, 2015 15:37:30 GMT -5
My 63 in round 2 will probably cost me a shot at winning it. I was actually in the lead on the back 9 of my 4th round but ended up a couple strokes short. Hopeful to finish in the top 10 this week!
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