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Post by bentfivewood on Dec 8, 2014 20:27:39 GMT -5
Look forward to reading this everyday. I hope this continues for all the tours when the season starts. Thanks for all your hard work! The daily full column takes a decent amount of time to create, but we are working on having reporting from all the tours as we proceed. Some may be more news and notes, with larger wrap up columns, but we definately realize the more we can 3-dimensionalize the story the better and more fun for everyone. I am constantly reviewing the press tent, so if you are one of the guys fighting close to one of these cut off levels, please tell your own story there and I will embelish and publish it within the column. The press tent will continue into the season as well. Then I can't wait to hear you "embellish" how I shat all over myself on Crawford.
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Post by misternic on Dec 9, 2014 13:37:19 GMT -5
Son Gual – Tuesday 12/9 – Welcome to the desert. The best word to describe this place is hot. Hot on the course, hot under the collar, but rarely hot with the putter. The rumors of rain last week never materialized and this place is sun baked and glazed to a nice crust. Anecdotal evidence suggests less than 25% of the 450 participants are able to hit the 2nd green in regulation. Lots of balls rolling through fairways and it would not be the desert without throwing in a little sand. While the conditions are making the players hot, this reporter is finding it to be journalistic gold as the players come off the 18th featuring a staggering range of emotions. One player threw his entire golf bag in the lake after completing his round yesterday. “I am too deep for shale workers to rescue me” said another. And yet another gave me a hug he was so happy to get through the desert unscathed.
Mount Yeti – 72.40 Avg (Par 72, 557 Golfers) Whispering River – 71.14 (Par 72, 97% completed) Copper Creek – 75.75 (Par 71, 89% Completed) Son Gual – 72.80 (Par 72, 81% Completed)
Despite the dryness and desert winds, Son Gual has not proven to be the beast that many thought it could be. It is still easily outdistanced by Copper Creek for that honor. Whispering River is the only place to make up strokes against par (on the average). That being said, the overall averages are an excellent high level tool to see how the courses are playing but as Al Roker would say, “let’s see what is going on in your neck of the woods”.
The averages at the top and bottom have a very large effect on the overall numbers. The ones at the bottom have an even bigger effect as you can only go so low, but the sky is the limit as far as going high. With that in mind I think it is important to start to dig deeper into what the masses are shooting who are competing for some of the coveted cards.
If we just analyze the players in positions 150-300, we get a better understanding of what it will take to qualify as a top 250 golfer. On Son Gual, the 150-300 group shot an average of 71.68 on Son Gual, just a bit under par. So while overall the average is almost a full stroke above, the moving line in the middle is heading the other way. I think this is important for those on the bubble to realize. Son Gual is certainly the beginning of “moving” day for this field, and 71.68 should be your barometer as to which direction you will be moving in the standings. In contrast the top 50 places in the standings shot averaged 65.2 strokes on Son Gual.
Currently the cut line for the top 250 is -1, but if only 3 more golfers get to -2 that cut line will move further into the red (-2) through four rounds. I think we can expect at least that many good rounds from people who have yet to step up to the first tee at Mount Yeti, let alone the 19% left to play Son Gual (or earlier courses). 114 golfers are within 5 shots of the cut line (-6 to +4). Of those, 36 have yet to play round 4 (or earlier). There is a lot of room for change as moving day begins.
Will you be “Moving on up” like the Jeffersons OR “Moving Out” like Billy Joel? Only time will tell and this reporter looks forward to getting both the triumph and tragedy as you leave the 18th green.
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Post by JobenMcFly on Dec 9, 2014 15:44:29 GMT -5
Copper Creek – 75.75 (Par 71, 89% Completed)
Makes me feel a lot better about my 66 at Copper Creek. I feel like I play that course better than a lot of other "easier" courses for some reason.
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Post by theclv24 on Dec 9, 2014 17:12:44 GMT -5
Copper Creek – 75.75 (Par 71, 89% Completed)
Makes me feel a lot better about my 66 at Copper Creek. I feel like I play that course better than a lot of other "easier" courses for some reason. That's crazy that from 86% completed to 89% completed the average went up almost a full 3 strokes. I'm glad that you can't rate courses during the tour, or my rating would plummet, lol.
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PSU-Cappy
Weekend Golfer
Yinzer
Posts: 120
TGCT Name: Chris Capcara
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Post by PSU-Cappy on Dec 9, 2014 17:12:52 GMT -5
Really kicking myself for playing all 6 in a row (especially since I didn't know how to putt properly until 2 days ago) Been practicing putting and just shot a 66 on son gual (with 2 bogeys) compared to the 72 I posted. Oh well, -12 still might be enough, but would have been much happier in the -20 range
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Post by Brighttail on Dec 10, 2014 11:52:50 GMT -5
Can't wait to see Kodiak's scores. The average has to be closer to Copper Creek in my opinion, it is just a beast with greens harder to hold than Copper Creek's ever was.
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Post by Nemecyst on Dec 10, 2014 12:14:06 GMT -5
Can't wait to see Kodiak's scores. The average has to be closer to Copper Creek in my opinion, it is just a beast with greens harder to hold than Copper Creek's ever was. I sure hope so. I think I dropped a 66 at Kodiak and I could use some help moving up the leaderboard since I think I'm right around the bubble line currently lol
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Post by Brighttail on Dec 10, 2014 12:34:28 GMT -5
Can't wait to see Kodiak's scores. The average has to be closer to Copper Creek in my opinion, it is just a beast with greens harder to hold than Copper Creek's ever was. I sure hope so. I think I dropped a 66 at Kodiak and I could use some help moving up the leaderboard since I think I'm right around the bubble line currently lol I was four under before I hit a weird glitch and had a quadruple bogey. Worked it back down to -4 and another weird glitch where the wind was blowing left to right, I aimed left, hit straight and the ball dove so far left I couldn't get out of the stuff with one shot...another quadruple bogey. Another birdie then on 18, 38 yards behind the green, did a normal loft wedge flop and it never checked. Instead it rolled up hill and off the green for a double. Final round +1 (73). Kodiak infuriates me and I firmly believe it is bugged. That being said, I'm looking forward to the final round. In practice I have scored -10 so I'm hoping to get a good round in. On that course it is all about target golf shooting and your putting HAS to be on, otherwise you are going to leave a lot of strokes on the course.
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Post by misternic on Dec 10, 2014 14:22:47 GMT -5
Son Gual – Wednesday 12/10 – The desert continues to burn, both with tempers and a few decent scores. Much has been made of the brutal back loaded schedule, especially rounds 4 and the upcoming round 5 at Kodiak. While the events of Kodiak are still unknown, the desert storm that was set to destroy scorecards has sort of fizzled. Consider more players have shot in the 50’s on Son Gual (2) than on Mount Yeti (1) and Copper Creek (0) combined. The average score is within a .25 strokes of the perceived much easier Mount Yeti. As expected the number of players coming through Mount Yeti appears far from over, and while the overall averages of all rounds goes up slightly, the increase in numbers makes the top 250 cut actually harder to achieve. As noted yesterday it was close to changing, and overnight it did, to -2. I for one saw it going up before we arrived at Son Gual, maybe even to + numbers. I was wrong. If Kodiak plays like a teddy bear instead of a Grizzly we could yet have a cut line in the red. Mount Yeti – 72.54 Avg (573 players) Whispering River - 71.26 (96%) Copper Creek - 74.96 (90%) Son Gual – 72.88 (86%)The averages are all pretty consistently going up slightly, with the exception of Copper Creek which has had more of a roller coaster relationship with the players. Now that roller coaster has not kept Copper Creek from not going up, but it makes me wonder what the cause is for the turbulence. In looking through the numbers (and the increase in participation (see below graph)), I think it has more to do with local course knowledge. Copper Creek is beatable (see the average on Dec 7th), but it also requires some thinking, some knowledge of where to miss and when to back off of driver. If you hit that course with both feet running, you may have stumbled early and often. I think the scores and the overall cut line of -2 will remain pretty stagnant until Friday when we see the Kodiak numbers. Some at the top have already noted their struggles there so a new leader is not just possible but likely. A shakeup in the middle can’t be far behind.
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Post by friendBOMBER on Dec 10, 2014 15:25:19 GMT -5
Love the graphs!
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Post by splittailace on Dec 10, 2014 18:55:49 GMT -5
Excellent reporting misternic. Not sure very many competitors would've expected son Gaul to yield a 72.88 average. Love the graphs.
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Post by Doyley on Dec 10, 2014 19:08:31 GMT -5
It's surprising - I would have guessed Son Gual would have been tougher than Copper Creek due to the firmness. Now it'll be interesting to compare Son Gual to Kodiak and see if the scores are similar. Again, great writeup - really enjoying them!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2014 20:38:14 GMT -5
Makes me feel a lot better about my 66 at Copper Creek. I feel like I play that course better than a lot of other "easier" courses for some reason. That's crazy that from 86% completed to 89% completed the average went up almost a full 3 strokes. I'm glad that you can't rate courses during the tour, or my rating would plummet, lol. well, I'm sure my +13 didn't help the average any ... I arrived at Cooper Creek in time for the afternoon gale force winds!!! to top it off, left my putter on the plane and forced to use my driver to putt~
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 8:49:23 GMT -5
I have a feeling the cut line will drop quite a bit. 270 have finished so far on PS4 and only 86 are under par, maybe Crawford wasn't as kind to everyone either?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 9:41:30 GMT -5
Crawford can bite you if you get short sided on a few of the tucked pins like #6. I'd think it has a lower average the the previous 3 courses tho. It's the best courses in the rotation. I struggled and was -1 for the tourney teeing it up at Crawford but finished well to end up -7 which I'm guessing is gonna be pretty close but time will tell
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