Don't overthink shots!

[tylannister]

I am currently finishing a period of 2-3 weeks of very poor golfing, playing very inconsistently and scoring +3 to -5 at almost every tournament. Double bogey started to appear at my cards while they were only visible at very special situations before ..

After a deep self-psycho therapy I noticed that since 3 weeks I am also sort of overthinking each shot. I printed a distance range excel sheet that I found at this forum (you know the kind I mean, with all distances after all the lofts and de-lofts are measured) and started doing mathematical calculations for many shots (distance - elevation - wind - lie -> loft, carry, roll...) Surprinsingly or not, I got worse at the game!

Since yesterday, I am testing throwing that worksheet away and playing more with the guts and I got really better! Just watch the elevation, wind, have a short look at the green slope and hit it. No more than 15-20 seconds in total for approach shots, I guess.

Some questions for debate:

- Did you make this same mistake? Or did that kind of calculations really worked for you? How much time do you take prior swinging?

- What is the real effect of ball lie? I have the feeling that I was over-estimating lay during the last time. Maybe because it is the only non-numerical variable to analyse prior a shot. I kinda made it so important as wind, whereas I now think that it was a mistake. I am now starting to take lie into consideration if it is showing yellow or red lines. I am ignoring all "green" lines, although showing that I am not on perfect flat ground.

[illinoisgator]

I’m pretty new to this series...playing a little over a year now and never got much into the mathematics of it all. I don’t have a lot of time so I kind of play by my gut and experience. Over the months I’ve gotten a lot better and may even be on my way to the pro tours soon. However, I’m sure that lack of understanding really hurts me from becoming a top player. I really struggle in high winds and elevation changes. I’ve learned how to handle winds in my face pretty well but that’s it. Theow in any elevations and I’m screwed.

[beercarthero]

The only things I take into account is elevation and wind, the rest is gut feeling on how much to loft or deloft a club, my goal with every approach is to get the ball to stop in a position with an uphill putt (I.E. keep the ball below the hole). I have only been playing this game since the first of the year so take whatever I said with a grain of salt but I am sure others can agree that keeping the ball below the hole when applicable is the way to go. Some days I can do it, some days I cannot. Some days my putter saves me from disaster, somedays it does not...

[mtsalmela80]

I don't know, if I want to be competitive, I need to analyze every shot, how sure I am that it's going to work, what could go wrong, practice swings to make sure I don't get a horrible tempo error. If I just play by feel, I might shoot 5 under, which ain't gonna get it done on any tour.

[Deleted]

Both sides are correct imo. For the swing execution itself, overthinking can be a killer, that's a physical feel motion which needs to be smooth and natural or you'll get into trouble because the tolerance for straightness and perfect tempo is so acute.

For judgement and planning of the shot, you can't overthink enough, every variable matters and that's what I love about this game. So many of those variables interact, e.g. if you have a strong headwind but you're on a yellow downslope, the trajectory will be lower resulting in less wind effect, which in turn reduces spin and increases rollout compared to a flat lie. This might only be 1-2 yards difference in landing spot, but if the pin is on a downslope, you better add some loft to compensate or the ball will run away from you. So many minutiae like that in the game and you're strongly rewarded for putting in study hours and calculating every shot.

I realise a lot of people don't like thinking about this game in terms of maths but that objection, imho, comes from a misguided assumption that this is a golf simulation, but at a fundamental level it's nothing of the sort. It's basically a pretty, animated spreadsheet with predictable variables that combine with an up and down lever motion to produce specific and measurable results. Consistent results come from thinking very hard about all these variables, but the raw swing execution should be fluid and natural. If this kind of thinking ruins your enjoyment and impacts your execution, then I agree don't overthink it, it's better to have fun after all, but if you want to score low you can't escape it.

[tylannister]

Larry, you went exactly to the point I was thinking of when first starting this thread. As a scientist and hobby mathematician, I do see the game as you, the definition of "an animated spreadsheet" is perfect
However, also as a scientist, the main problem I am having with that spreadsheet is two disturbing variables that are not simple at all, that sometimes are bigger in magnitude as one club difference and, worst of all, you can't predict BEFOREHAND, which will be the main point of that spreadsheet:
- The sensitivity of the swinging system: We all know that, even with a P/P timing, a minimum deviation of the swing line to one side can mean 5 yards difference in landing spot.
- The too big landing spot circle that the system shows you in comparison with, i.e., the Tiger Woods series. That makes fun to me, I ended as most of the people shooting -15s on a regular basis at that EA sports game... But, especially on courses that have too many hills, landing on a spot or 3 yards to the left or right can mean being on the green or at a bunker and cashing +2 shots more.

That is the reason why I feel at this moment that calculating that much does not fully deserve. I keep on quickly mentally adding wind and elevation and have a short review of the landing area, but I have stopped looking at the spreadsheet to see what 2 ticks of de-loft would mean to a particular shot. It feels better to trust your visual memory and experience at the game and "guess" how much is the ball going to roll, roughly. I am not scoring worse than before, I even slightly improved, and I feel more relaxed and less frustrated when playing. I think that I kind of couldn't tolerate before that my to-the-inch calculations were sometimes correct and sometimes very incorrect.

[Deleted]

I do calculate the major variables but I think most people's problems come from how the variables interact.

For example, wind and elevation can't be done separately, because wind is a function of elevation.

Also as winds increase, it's not a straight line effect on distance. Particularly noticeable on headwinds.. it's more of a logarithmic effect.

[donkeypuncherben]

I've never use a sheet or anything like that, but you do need to think about all of the variables and how lie, loft, and wind interact and affect both carry and roll. Don't overthink the ground slopes, especially with the middle irons, but keep in mind the side slopes affect the longer clubs quite a bit and the up or down slopes affect the more lofted clubs quite a bit.

You especially need to pay attention in the short game if you are chipping or flopping off a downslope or an upslope, but full wedges are also affected