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Post by Andrea on Feb 15, 2016 9:59:13 GMT -5
Well, based on early returns in E Class (20 posted so far) things are not looking good for me if I decide to tackle this one. Mid point appears to be 4 under which would be close to my best score for this course. Looks like I've got my work cut out for me. Don't know why, but this course gives me fits. On an average day, par is about the best I can do. Not really looking forward to getting my first strike on the way down to Z Class. Maybe there was a reason I didn't register for this one. ** EDIT ** Never mind. I was looking at the PGA scores. E Class has very few entered so far so I'll keep an eye on it. But so far, scores are very bad. Gives me hope. LOL. Have you ever tried the course in low winds wags? R1 has very low winds; R2 they go up (a lot) and R3 about 4-10MPH margin. R4 I don't know (I'm @ hole 14 R3 right now) Also R1 has the easier flag position till now - R2 and R3 couple of really tricky ones. I think scores in E will not break -6 / -10 under total for safety
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 10:53:40 GMT -5
Well, based on early returns in E Class (20 posted so far) things are not looking good for me if I decide to tackle this one. Mid point appears to be 4 under which would be close to my best score for this course. Looks like I've got my work cut out for me. Don't know why, but this course gives me fits. On an average day, par is about the best I can do. Not really looking forward to getting my first strike on the way down to Z Class. Maybe there was a reason I didn't register for this one. ** EDIT ** Never mind. I was looking at the PGA scores. E Class has very few entered so far so I'll keep an eye on it. But so far, scores are very bad. Gives me hope. LOL. Have you ever tried the course in low winds wags? R1 has very low winds; R2 they go up (a lot) and R3 about 4-10MPH margin. R4 I don't know (I'm @ hole 14 R3 right now) Also R1 has the easier flag position till now - R2 and R3 couple of really tricky ones. I think scores in E will not break -6 / -10 under total for safety Right now the medium score in Class E is 2 under. Granted only 8 people posted but I don't expect that to go up too much. I usually wait til 30 players in before I do the stats and do all the calculations as to what's needed to finish where. So far I've been pretty dead accurate with all the events to date.
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Post by Andrea on Feb 15, 2016 12:45:58 GMT -5
Have you ever tried the course in low winds wags? R1 has very low winds; R2 they go up (a lot) and R3 about 4-10MPH margin. R4 I don't know (I'm @ hole 14 R3 right now) Also R1 has the easier flag position till now - R2 and R3 couple of really tricky ones. I think scores in E will not break -6 / -10 under total for safety Right now the medium score in Class E is 2 under. Granted only 8 people posted but I don't expect that to go up too much. I usually wait til 30 players in before I do the stats and do all the calculations as to what's needed to finish where. So far I've been pretty dead accurate with all the events to date. I played the whole tour and saw some of the final score both on PS4 and on PC...I think I overestimated the safety zone for E class. No disrespect of course. I think finishing the whole tourney 5 or 6 strokes under PAR will probably be safe from strikes. If your average is -4 per round you could be staring very close to an exemption. I think you should play this tourney - the struggle of players who didn't practice like you guys did is real. About the course I enjoyed the tee-shot challenge, but I must say that some pin positions aren't 100% fair. In R2 and R4 especially there's some serious slopes 4-5ft around a couple of holes that could easily lead to doubles or triples. The challenge overall for CC Circuit is on the tough side but mostly fair (kudos to mrooola ) - it's just a consideration for the designer who clearly wanted to make things sometimes "artificially" harder
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 13:25:34 GMT -5
Right now the medium score in Class E is 2 under. Granted only 8 people posted but I don't expect that to go up too much. I usually wait til 30 players in before I do the stats and do all the calculations as to what's needed to finish where. So far I've been pretty dead accurate with all the events to date. I played the whole tour and saw some of the final score both on PS4 and on PC...I think I overestimated the safety zone for E class. No disrespect of course. I think finishing the whole tourney 5 or 6 strokes under PAR will probably be safe from strikes. If your average is -4 per round you could be staring very close to an exemption. I think you should play this tourney - the struggle of players who didn't practice like you guys did is real. About the course I enjoyed the tee-shot challenge, but I must say that some pin positions aren't 100% fair. In R2 and R4 especially there's some serious slopes 4-5ft around a couple of holes that could easily lead to doubles or triples. The challenge overall for CC Circuit is on the tough side but mostly fair (kudos to mrooola ) - it's just a consideration for the designer who clearly wanted to make things sometimes "artificially" harder Well, right now with 15 scores posted, the medium is 5 under. That translates to 20 under for the tournament just to avoid a strike. I average about 8 under for the 4 rounds in practice. I'm not even going to be close to avoiding a strike if things continue as they are. I'm going to wait until about 30 to 35 scores are posted. That's usually the number I need to do a valid statistical analysis based on previous tournaments. But I don't expect things to change much.
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Post by Andrea on Feb 15, 2016 14:01:42 GMT -5
I played the whole tour and saw some of the final score both on PS4 and on PC...I think I overestimated the safety zone for E class. No disrespect of course. I think finishing the whole tourney 5 or 6 strokes under PAR will probably be safe from strikes. If your average is -4 per round you could be staring very close to an exemption. I think you should play this tourney - the struggle of players who didn't practice like you guys did is real. About the course I enjoyed the tee-shot challenge, but I must say that some pin positions aren't 100% fair. In R2 and R4 especially there's some serious slopes 4-5ft around a couple of holes that could easily lead to doubles or triples. The challenge overall for CC Circuit is on the tough side but mostly fair (kudos to mrooola ) - it's just a consideration for the designer who clearly wanted to make things sometimes "artificially" harder Well, right now with 15 scores posted, the medium is 5 under. That translates to 20 under for the tournament just to avoid a strike. I average about 8 under for the 4 rounds in practice. I'm not even going to be close to avoiding a strike if things continue as they are. I'm going to wait until about 30 to 35 scores are posted. That's usually the number I need to do a valid statistical analysis based on previous tournaments. But I don't expect things to change much. I reckon you have better knowledge than me about numbers in the CC Tours but I seriously doubt that a 20 under finish will get you a strike in any of the CC tiers this week. Last week the strike line for CC-E was -11 and the course was a thousand times easier overall. Those R1 scores will be so much lower than R2-R3-R4 when the winds will strongly kick in with those headache pin positions I may be wrong but I believe the strike line for your tire will stay single digits
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 14:41:06 GMT -5
Well, right now with 15 scores posted, the medium is 5 under. That translates to 20 under for the tournament just to avoid a strike. I average about 8 under for the 4 rounds in practice. I'm not even going to be close to avoiding a strike if things continue as they are. I'm going to wait until about 30 to 35 scores are posted. That's usually the number I need to do a valid statistical analysis based on previous tournaments. But I don't expect things to change much. I reckon you have better knowledge than me about numbers in the CC Tours but I seriously doubt that a 20 under finish will get you a strike in any of the CC tiers this week. Last week the strike line for CC-E was -11 and the course was a thousand times easier overall. Those R1 scores will be so much lower than R2-R3-R4 when the winds will strongly kick in with those headache pin positions I may be wrong but I believe the strike line for your tire will stay single digits I hope you're right but I've been doing these stats for a long time now. Probability and statistics are my strong suit. I can predict within 4 strokes where the strike line is going to be. If you check back through my old threads and then check the results for that week (in the class that I did the stats for) you'll see I was very close each week. One week I said 16 to 20 under to avoid a strike and it turned out to be 14 under so I was 2 strokes off on the low end. Let's say I'm 5 strokes off on this one. We're still talking 15 under to avoid a strike (3 or 4 under per round) I can do that as long as I play perfect golf (for me) meaning no missed fairways because that's where I'm dead. But I don't play perfect golf. I always have that one hole on this course where I double bogie. One round in my dozens of practice rounds I had a double bogie free round. I shot 5 under. That's my best score on this course. That comes out to 20 under for 4 rounds IF I can duplicate that every round, which is very unlikely. I'm going to call this now even though it's still too early. As this is moving month, which makes this even harder (50% needed to not get a strike) I'm going to call the 50% line to be between 12 and 16 under leaving room for the high winds in the later rounds. I'm going to predict out of 100 players, based on that projection, I'm going to finish around 70th place based on my average performance on this course. I will have to absolutely be at the very top of my game (hard to do under pressure) in order to make top 50. After 30 scores are posted, I'll have a better handle on it. Let's see how close I come.
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Post by Andrea on Feb 15, 2016 15:27:55 GMT -5
I reckon you have better knowledge than me about numbers in the CC Tours but I seriously doubt that a 20 under finish will get you a strike in any of the CC tiers this week. Last week the strike line for CC-E was -11 and the course was a thousand times easier overall. Those R1 scores will be so much lower than R2-R3-R4 when the winds will strongly kick in with those headache pin positions I may be wrong but I believe the strike line for your tire will stay single digits I hope you're right but I've been doing these stats for a long time now. Probability and statistics are my strong suit. I can predict within 4 strokes where the strike line is going to be. If you check back through my old threads and then check the results for that week (in the class that I did the stats for) you'll see I was very close each week. One week I said 16 to 20 under to avoid a strike and it turned out to be 14 under so I was 2 strokes off on the low end. Let's say I'm 5 strokes off on this one. We're still talking 15 under to avoid a strike (3 or 4 under per round) I can do that as long as I play perfect golf (for me) meaning no missed fairways because that's where I'm dead. But I don't play perfect golf. I always have that one hole on this course where I double bogie. One round in my dozens of practice rounds I had a double bogie free round. I shot 5 under. That's my best score on this course. That comes out to 20 under for 4 rounds IF I can duplicate that every round, which is very unlikely. I'm going to call this now even though it's still too early. As this is moving month, which makes this even harder (50% needed to not get a strike) I'm going to call the 50% line to be between 12 and 16 under leaving room for the high winds in the later rounds. I'm going to predict out of 100 players, based on that projection, I'm going to finish around 70th place based on my average performance on this course. I will have to absolutely be at the very top of my game (hard to do under pressure) in order to make top 50. After 30 scores are posted, I'll have a better handle on it. Let's see how close I come. I totally trust your math Stephen! Even more cause I've always been soo bad at it My prediction were (and are) just based on the scores I saw on PS4 and PC, and the score me and my fellow Euro/PGA comrades which partecipate week in - week out posted I hope I'm right just as you do of course, cause it'll mean you'll do just fine my friend Most of all I did a bit of a (maybe wrong) comparison: last week the top scorer on console/PC finished 63 under (me tied with a fellow PGA player ) and the CC-A/B winners finished "short" about 10/12 strokes....and the same happened in the last few weeks that I've played on CC. This week the top score (I can't check Xbox unfortunately) is right now 48 under by a fellow PGA-er. Having played the tourney I strongly believe that score will stay at the top...or maybe a 50-52 under could be there. That's basically why I predicted those scores. And that's why I predicted my friend who's playing on exemption in CC-A that the winner in A will be close to 40 under and top 12 (to get the "jump" to web exemption) will be around 25-28 under. Those are just guesses of mine - no math supported Let me close by pulling my hat off (again) to mr @papapaul who completed another super solid week....I predict landing his golfing ass around the TOP 3/5 in CC-C. Are you gonna set a record for the fastest climb from E to Euro/PGA?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 16:00:46 GMT -5
I hope you're right but I've been doing these stats for a long time now. Probability and statistics are my strong suit. I can predict within 4 strokes where the strike line is going to be. If you check back through my old threads and then check the results for that week (in the class that I did the stats for) you'll see I was very close each week. One week I said 16 to 20 under to avoid a strike and it turned out to be 14 under so I was 2 strokes off on the low end. Let's say I'm 5 strokes off on this one. We're still talking 15 under to avoid a strike (3 or 4 under per round) I can do that as long as I play perfect golf (for me) meaning no missed fairways because that's where I'm dead. But I don't play perfect golf. I always have that one hole on this course where I double bogie. One round in my dozens of practice rounds I had a double bogie free round. I shot 5 under. That's my best score on this course. That comes out to 20 under for 4 rounds IF I can duplicate that every round, which is very unlikely. I'm going to call this now even though it's still too early. As this is moving month, which makes this even harder (50% needed to not get a strike) I'm going to call the 50% line to be between 12 and 16 under leaving room for the high winds in the later rounds. I'm going to predict out of 100 players, based on that projection, I'm going to finish around 70th place based on my average performance on this course. I will have to absolutely be at the very top of my game (hard to do under pressure) in order to make top 50. After 30 scores are posted, I'll have a better handle on it. Let's see how close I come. Let me close by pulling my hat off (again) to mr @papapaul who completed another super solid week....I predict landing his golfing ass around the TOP 3/5 in CC-C. Are you gonna set a record for the fastest climb from E to Euro/PGA? Mr Andrea you're far too kind, though thank you anyway! I took too many risks in this tournament, even when I said I wouldn't so it could have been much lower but then I'm sure a few people will do the same as me as the rewards are there. Just finished my Elimination Bracket Challenge and crikey if courses like that ever appear on the CC then we really will know what a hard course feels like. Tough is an understatement!
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Post by Andrea on Feb 15, 2016 17:03:45 GMT -5
Let me close by pulling my hat off (again) to mr @papapaul who completed another super solid week....I predict landing his golfing ass around the TOP 3/5 in CC-C. Are you gonna set a record for the fastest climb from E to Euro/PGA? Mr Andrea you're far too kind, though thank you anyway! I took too many risks in this tournament, even when I said I wouldn't so it could have been much lower but then I'm sure a few people will do the same as me as the rewards are there. Just finished my Elimination Bracket Challenge and crikey if courses like that ever appear on the CC then we really will know what a hard course feels like. Tough is an understatement! Well if you're up to a challenge that will bolster your game I'll suggest you to try these: Magnolia National (Sunday - Max Firm) Chambers Bay (Sunday) Royal Brikdale 2016 Muirfield 2013 Open Rivington Hall Golf Club Royal Lytham and St Annes 2015 TGC Trail @ Adirondack National Make a bunch your weekly playlist and shortly you'll be prepared to face almost anything
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 18:52:51 GMT -5
Well, I finally got pissed off and decided to give this course one more practice round giving it all I had and determined to beat it.
Round 1 - 6 under (My best score ever on this course) Round 2 - 4 under
Then came the dreaded Saturday and Sunday pin positions.
Round 3 - 1 under (caused by one mishit on hole 18 that ended up a double bogie) Round 4 - 1 over (And I had to scramble like hell just to get that)
Total - 10 under
Best I've ever done, beating my 8 under by 2 strokes.
That's it. That's as good as it gets for me right now on this course and that's without the pressure of competition.
Right now, with 26 scores reported, the medium is 3 under. By tomorrow morning I'll know for sure where the strike line will be. But right now it's looking like a minimum of 12 under par for the 4 rounds in order to not get a demotion strike. That means I will essentially have to avoid that one mishit on 18 in round 3 to just make the cutoff.
I will have to dig down and play the golf of my life just to keep from getting a strike.
It might be easier to just skip this week and wait for Dayton.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2016 20:21:02 GMT -5
Okay. we've hit the 30 places mark and medium is 2 under, which really has me surprised that it's this high. On the plus side, this is encouraging. So tomorrow I'm going to tackle this beast. If I can shoot 4 under I'll be in good shape.
To be continued...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2016 6:58:14 GMT -5
As I get up this morning and check out the scores, 47 places in, median point has risen to par. I am absolutely stunned by this. I should now be able to go into this one nice and relaxed. If I can't break par on this course I need to quit now.
Going in this afternoon.
Wish me luck.
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