Golf Betting Tips and Power Rankings

[theduke21]

Hey guys, 

Had a few people that were interested in my work in streams and such so I figured I'd make a thread.

I work for the PGA Tour full-time from home basically (36 hours a week) but I also do some gambling freelance work on the side. All sports really but I recently got assigned to do a weekly power rankings story for The Lines which is an upcoming gambling website that huge media corporation Catena Media took over. Lot of money being put into gambling in the U.S. now with it becoming largely legal lol. 

So anyways, I wanted to post my rankings in here weekly and also give out some tips on my betting each week. Hit a double last week with Sami Valikami in Oman and Sungjae Im at the Honda. Also hit on Cameron Smith, Lee Westwood and Justin Thomas all this year. I would be up about $2000, but Bovada took $600 of it because I unknowingly had two accounts from one I created when I was like 18. All set now and actually used BitCoin this week to take a little chunk out and see if it went well. Highly recommend it for any withdraws from offshore sites. I got it in my bank account within 24 hours with about $8 in fees taken out. 

Here are my power rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: www.thelines.com/golf-power-rankings/

As for my bets this week, I have my European Tour bets in. Going with Kaymer at 14/1, Sharvin at 200/1, Winther at 100/1 and Rozner at 80/1. 

Haven't done my PGA bets yet, but I'm eyeing Stenson and Scheffler for sure. Will post those when I'm set. 

[theduke21]

I added Grant Forrest to my Euro bets at 80/1

For PGA this week, main bets:

Fowler 33/1, Rose 40/1, Stenson 40/1, Scheffler 100/1.

Also have some small action on Munoz 100/1 and Jazz Janewattananond at 175/1

[unclevirt]

Cool thread Tyler and good luck with your extra work aside from the PGA. I have some leftover money in my bovada account from the NFL and this time of year is usually a bit of a lull for me in those regards....however, with the players and major season coming up, this could be fun since I'll be watching anyways. However, I'm gonna have to time it correctly because when I do use Bovada...I become a couch potato and get glued to the TV =P

[theduke21]

Mar 5, 2020 8:58:49 GMT -5 unclevirt said:

Cool thread Tyler and good luck with your extra work aside from the PGA. I have some leftover money in my bovada account from the NFL and this time of year is usually a bit of a lull for me in those regards....however, with the players and major season coming up, this could be fun since I'll be watching anyways. However, I'm gonna have to time it correctly because when I do use Bovada...I become a couch potato and get glued to the TV =P

Online betting can be dangerous man lol. 

I'm limiting myself to just golf. Getting involved with other sports just has you mindlessly watching meaningless games all day. It's bad. 

Have Winther in T5 at 100/1 and Scheffler T3 at 100/1 right now so could be an interesting weekend for me. 

[theduke21]

Man it's been a sweaty weekend.

I have Winther in the final pairing and one shot back at 100/1 tomorrow morning. Wish I put more than 10 on him but a quick $1,000 would be welcoming.

Scheffler at 100/1 has been incredibly frustrating this week and I backed him heavy. Friday he took the lead and finished double double to fall 4 back. Then today he nearly makes albatross on 6 and gets to solo 3rd. Then he misses putts of 4 feet, 4 feet, 3 feet and 3 feet on 4 straight holes to fall back. Then he gets back into 5th going to 18 and makes another double. So now he's in 9th and 4 or 5 back for a miracle on Sunday. Could really be right in it. I did back Im before the round at a good price.

[summer]

Sports betting counts? I personally consider betting to be a form of entertainment only especially when I'm watching sports (NBA,PBA) and sometimes MMA. It makes me more excited and happy when I'm betting while watching and even I lose to my bet, it is ok for me. Also I like to play casino poker just for fun, it's also kind of gambling. There are some gamblers who want gambling to be their profession. I don't blame them but for me, you need a huge amount of money for it.

[melanieg]

I bet on sport now and then, but I've never tried golf betting.To be honest, I prefer playing mr.bet casino video slots. It helps me to relax after a long working day. But I consider betting and gambling to be entertainment, at least I do this for fun.

[Friz]

With a long layoff, I'm really looking forward to this week's Charles Schwab Challenge. I don't often do any normal betting on golf, but I dabble in Daily Fantasy Golf through DraftKings. I've put together a couple lineups for this week. I feel like this week more so than any other is so hard to predict, with no idea how guys will fare coming off a long layoff, but the guys I'm pulling for this week from my lineups

Jon Rahm
Webb Simpson
Rickie Fowler
Harris English
Kevin Na
Kevin Kisner
Ryan Palmer
Marc Leishman
Jordan Spieth

[coruler2]

Draft kings and similar sites aren’t allowed in AZ. Would be really popular here too. Maybe someday

[Friz]

last week did not go well as 7 of my 9 guys missed the cut...possibly an all time worst for me, but moving on. I have a lot of names I like this week, and I'll be playing the DraftKings game again. Harbour Town is one of my favorite stops on tour, glad it didn't end up cancelled.

theduke21 - as the one who started this thread, I'm curious about your thoughts this week. I read your power rankings post, and I actually was looking at a lot of names you didn't mention. I don't doubt your research at all, as I didn't take the statistical approach, instead I looked at historical results in this event over the past 10 years.

Webb Simpson - seems we agree here, in the last 10 years he has played this event 9 times and never missed the cut. Two top 5 finishes, 6 total in the top 16.

Matt Kuchar - similar to Webb, regularly plays here. In the last 10 years he has played every tournament and never missed the cut. 4 top 10's including a win and runner up, and 8 total in the top 25.

Kevin Kisner - played the last 6 iterations of this tournament without missing the cut. Finished in the top 10 twice, and another time at 11th.

Branden Grace - another former winner of this event, has also never missed the cut in 4 tries. In addition to his win also has a 7th place and 11th place finish, and coming off a strong showing last week.

Ian Poulter - Another guy who has not missed the cut here in 6 tries. The last 3 years here he has gone 10th, 7th, and 11th.

Rory Sabbatini - In 8 tries here, he has made 6 cuts and finished in the top 10 three times, and top 25 all 6 times he made the cut. Played well last week too.

Kevin Streelman - In 7 tries has never missed the cut and also has 3 top 10's

And everyone's Harbor Town favorite - Luke Donald. Plays every year here, his only missed cut came two years ago, but ignoring that has finished in the top 3 6 times in the last 10 years

[theduke21]

Jun 16, 2020 8:51:41 GMT -5 Friz said:

last week did not go well as 7 of my 9 guys missed the cut...possibly an all time worst for me, but moving on. I have a lot of names I like this week, and I'll be playing the DraftKings game again. Harbour Town is one of my favorite stops on tour, glad it didn't end up cancelled.

theduke21 - as the one who started this thread, I'm curious about your thoughts this week. I read your power rankings post, and I actually was looking at a lot of names you didn't mention. I don't doubt your research at all, as I didn't take the statistical approach, instead I looked at historical results in this event over the past 10 years.

Webb Simpson - seems we agree here, in the last 10 years he has played this event 9 times and never missed the cut. Two top 5 finishes, 6 total in the top 16.

Matt Kuchar - similar to Webb, regularly plays here. In the last 10 years he has played every tournament and never missed the cut. 4 top 10's including a win and runner up, and 8 total in the top 25.

Kevin Kisner - played the last 6 iterations of this tournament without missing the cut. Finished in the top 10 twice, and another time at 11th.

Branden Grace - another former winner of this event, has also never missed the cut in 4 tries. In addition to his win also has a 7th place and 11th place finish, and coming off a strong showing last week.

Ian Poulter - Another guy who has not missed the cut here in 6 tries. The last 3 years here he has gone 10th, 7th, and 11th.

Rory Sabbatini - In 8 tries here, he has made 6 cuts and finished in the top 10 three times, and top 25 all 6 times he made the cut. Played well last week too.

Kevin Streelman - In 7 tries has never missed the cut and also has 3 top 10's

And everyone's Harbor Town favorite - Luke Donald. Plays every year here, his only missed cut came two years ago, but ignoring that has finished in the top 3 6 times in the last 10 years

Last week was up and down for me. Betting wise I had Rose at the end. 

My model looks a lot at recent form which can be tricky when combined with this long break and some course history guys. I'd like a lot more of the guys you mentioned if it wasn't such a loaded field. When you have a course like this with most of the best players in the world playing, it makes it a lot harder for someone in the middle tier to make that jump up. 

For the group above you mentioned, I really don't hate any of them but Kuchar. Kuchar has just had a really rough year and hasn't found his game very often. But he's a veteran and could easily figure it out at a course he likes. Grace played nicely last week and he obviously likes it here so he's a nice look. The bottom 4 are all guys I think could play well in DraftKings but I wouldn't be overly interested in betting them to win the tournament in a field like this. Capable of contending and a top 10 but hard to see them having the upside to beat out some of the top players. 

[Friz]

Jun 16, 2020 17:59:51 GMT -5 theduke21 said:

Jun 16, 2020 8:51:41 GMT -5 Friz said:

last week did not go well as 7 of my 9 guys missed the cut...possibly an all time worst for me, but moving on. I have a lot of names I like this week, and I'll be playing the DraftKings game again. Harbour Town is one of my favorite stops on tour, glad it didn't end up cancelled.

theduke21 - as the one who started this thread, I'm curious about your thoughts this week. I read your power rankings post, and I actually was looking at a lot of names you didn't mention. I don't doubt your research at all, as I didn't take the statistical approach, instead I looked at historical results in this event over the past 10 years.

Webb Simpson - seems we agree here, in the last 10 years he has played this event 9 times and never missed the cut. Two top 5 finishes, 6 total in the top 16.

Matt Kuchar - similar to Webb, regularly plays here. In the last 10 years he has played every tournament and never missed the cut. 4 top 10's including a win and runner up, and 8 total in the top 25.

Kevin Kisner - played the last 6 iterations of this tournament without missing the cut. Finished in the top 10 twice, and another time at 11th.

Branden Grace - another former winner of this event, has also never missed the cut in 4 tries. In addition to his win also has a 7th place and 11th place finish, and coming off a strong showing last week.

Ian Poulter - Another guy who has not missed the cut here in 6 tries. The last 3 years here he has gone 10th, 7th, and 11th.

Rory Sabbatini - In 8 tries here, he has made 6 cuts and finished in the top 10 three times, and top 25 all 6 times he made the cut. Played well last week too.

Kevin Streelman - In 7 tries has never missed the cut and also has 3 top 10's

And everyone's Harbor Town favorite - Luke Donald. Plays every year here, his only missed cut came two years ago, but ignoring that has finished in the top 3 6 times in the last 10 years

Last week was up and down for me. Betting wise I had Rose at the end. 

My model looks a lot at recent form which can be tricky when combined with this long break and some course history guys. I'd like a lot more of the guys you mentioned if it wasn't such a loaded field. When you have a course like this with most of the best players in the world playing, it makes it a lot harder for someone in the middle tier to make that jump up. 

For the group above you mentioned, I really don't hate any of them but Kuchar. Kuchar has just had a really rough year and hasn't found his game very often. But he's a veteran and could easily figure it out at a course he likes. Grace played nicely last week and he obviously likes it here so he's a nice look. The bottom 4 are all guys I think could play well in DraftKings but I wouldn't be overly interested in betting them to win the tournament in a field like this. Capable of contending and a top 10 but hard to see them having the upside to beat out some of the top players. 

Appreciate the thoughts.  Its definitely a different thought process with the expanded and stronger field, but I guess I'm also in a different mindset with the DraftKings lineup than straight bets.  My first priority is finding 6 guys who will hang around in the weekend, if I at least have 6 guys playing all 4 rounds I'm in pretty good shape even if I don't pick the winner.

I'm surprised with your thoughts on Kuchar, and I haven't actually watched him play much at all this season, but just looking at results I wouldn't have thought he was having a bad season.  Obviously coming off a missed cut last week, but only missed it by one stroke.  But prior to the break he was 2nd at the Genesis in February, and he was probably the most confident name of the guys I listed.  I was curious on his odds, sports betting is still getting set up here in Michigan so I don't have a way to make a real wager, but I saw him at +175 to finish top 20.  I think I would have jumped on that.  I'll be paying extra close attention this week, just for fun anyway, how that would have panned out.

I ended up going with a variety of guys across multiple lineups, but each lineup I made is built around 2 or 3 of the guys I listed earlier to pair with some of the bigger names.  In total this week, the guys I have in play across 10 lineups are:

Rory McIlroy - 3 times
Bryson DeChambeau - 2 times
Hideki Matsuyama - 3 times
Collin Morikawa - 3 times
Justin Rose - 2 times
Webb Simpson - 5 times
Matt Kuchar - 5 times
Ian Poulter - 4 times
Kevin Kisner - 3 times
Joel Dahmen - 4 times
Bud Cauley - 3 times
Rory Sabbatini - 5 times
Tyrell Hatton - 3 times
Branden Grace - 3 times
Luke Donald - 5 times
Kevin Streelman - 4 times
Justin Thomas - 1 time
Xander Schauffle - 1 time
Gary Woodland - 1 time

If there is a magic scenario where all 19 of these guys make the cut.....well I'll probably wish I played higher value tournaments

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2020 19:53:19 GMT -5 theduke21 said:

I hate two things in this world. Golf and betting. I don’t know why, but since childhood I don’t like this game. I’m even ready to play American football, but not golf. Beting I do not like because there is a lot of cheating. For example, there are a lot of match-fixing and bribery games and this can become a real problem. In general, gambling is a bad idea, but it seems to me that sometimes you can have fun and play some cool games in online casinos. It is also important here to find a reliable casino because it can also cause you problems. I personally play Clubvip777 and I am very pleased with the casino system. For two months of the game I did not encounter any problems. Of course I'm not saying that this can be a stable income, but sometimes it can bring you extra dollars.I hate two things in this world. Golf and betting. I don’t know why, but since childhood I don’t like this game. I’m even ready to play American football, but not golf. Beting I do not like because there is a lot of cheating. For example, there are a lot of match-fixing and bribery games and this can become a real problem. In general, gambling is a bad idea, but it seems to me that sometimes you can have fun and play some cool games in online casinos. It is also important here to find a reliable casino because it can also cause you problems. I personally play Clubvip777 and I am very pleased with the casino system. For two months of the game I did not encounter any problems. Of course I'm not saying that this can be a stable income, but sometimes it can bring you extra dollars.Hey guys, 

Had a few people that were interested in my work in streams and such so I figured I'd make a thread.

I work for the PGA Tour full-time from home basically (36 hours a week) but I also do some gambling freelance work on the side. All sports really but I recently got assigned to do a weekly power rankings story for The Lines which is an upcoming gambling website that huge media corporation Catena Media took over. Lot of money being put into gambling in the U.S. now with it becoming largely legal lol. 

So anyways, I wanted to post my rankings in here weekly and also give out some tips on my betting each week. Hit a double last week with Sami Valikami in Oman and Sungjae Im at the Honda. Also hit on Cameron Smith, Lee Westwood and Justin Thomas all this year. I would be up about $2000, but Bovada took $600 of it because I unknowingly had two accounts from one I created when I was like 18. All set now and actually used BitCoin this week to take a little chunk out and see if it went well. Highly recommend it for any withdraws from offshore sites. I got it in my bank account within 24 hours with about $8 in fees taken out. 

Here are my power rankings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: www.thelines.com/golf-power-rankings/

As for my bets this week, I have my European Tour bets in. Going with Kaymer at 14/1, Sharvin at 200/1, Winther at 100/1 and Rozner at 80/1. 

Haven't done my PGA bets yet, but I'm eyeing Stenson and Scheffler for sure. Will post those when I'm set. 

I hate two things in this world. Golf and betting. I don’t know why, but since childhood I don’t like this game. I’m even ready to play American football, but not golf. Beting I do not like because there is a lot of cheating. For example, there are a lot of match-fixing and bribery games and this can become a real problem. In general, gambling is a bad idea, but it seems to me that sometimes you can have fun and play some cool games in online casinos. It is also important here to find a reliable casino because it can also cause you problems. I personally play Clubvip777 and I am very pleased with the casino system. For two months of the game I did not encounter any problems. Of course I'm not saying that this can be a stable income, but sometimes it can bring you extra dollars.

[golferdude1994]

two words for rocket mortgage classic: Bryson Dechambeau

[whiteonar]

Thank you for sharing the tips on how to bet on golf. In my opinion, it is an exciting sport. I am usually betting on mgm99win, and there appeared the possibility of making bets on golf, and I thought it is a great possibility to learn more about a new sport and start making money by making bets on it. Now it seems like something very complicated because there are multiple rules, and I need to learn all of them to make predictions on who will win the match, which isn't so easy in golf because there are many factors that can influence the game.